Analysing How Past Horse Racing Performances Can Affect Your Bet
Betting on horse racing is a pastime that is enjoyed by many millions of Australians. A few make their careers out of being professional gamblers on the horse races. No matter who you are, or what your betting goals are, you will need to select the horses to bet on. Your selection methods could be by picking a number, a colour of the jockey's silks, or just liking a name. Random methods are usually doomed to failure, depending simply upon luck. In this day and age of information technology, there is always plenty of information on horse racing form available. We will have a look at some factors of horse performance you might like to consider before placing your bet.
Unless a horse is a first starter, then you will have some performance on which to assess the abilities of a horse. Any form guide will tell you the past runs of a horse, and good guides will include time, margins, weights and class. They will also include an X when a horse hasn't started for a long period and this is known as a spell. Some horses perform well after a break, while others will take a number of runs to gain fitness.
Armed with all of this information, you would think it would be easy to find the next winner, wouldn't you? But it is not that easy, and there are a lot of other things to be considered.
Most of the past performance is centred on the finishing position of a horse. Sometimes this can be misleading, and you need to look at this in some perspective. Horse A might run third but be beaten by six lengths, while horse B may run eighth, but beaten by only four lengths. We then have to try and determine which was the best run. Class of the race can make a big difference. If our first horse raced in an Open Handicap while the second horse raced in a Maiden race, for non-winners, then you may be inclined to think that the first run was better.
Time is a good comparison if conditions are the same. Horses that show they can run the best time will probably beat those that have previously run slower. Conditions, like track conditions, can impact on this, as well as the run the horse gets in the race. Weight is another great leveller. The more weight a horse carries, and this is allocated by the handicapper whose aim is it to even out the ability of the horses in the race, the slower it will go.
Things go wrong in races. Horses can run into trouble and maybe even have gear problems. While many form guides do not show them, it is a good idea to read through the steward's reports as these may give a clue especially to an uncharacteristic performance.
A number of guides will also show if a horse is up or down in grade. The easier the race obviously the easier it is for a horse to win. There is no better example of this than Maiden races. Often you will see a Maiden winner step up into a Class 1 race and start favourite. These runners have a particularly poor record. In fact, most last start winners find it hard to win their next start as they are usually handicapped harshly.
Another important factor in past performances is when a horse had its last start. Most horses perform best with a seven to fourteen day break between races. However, many horses will take some runs to gain fitness, and by looking at past campaigns, we may be able to identify when a horse is reaching peak fitness.
What you get out of past performances depends on the amount of analysis you are prepared to put in. Be wary of taking all information on face value.
Betting on horse racing is a pastime that is enjoyed by many millions of Australians. A few make their careers out of being professional gamblers on the horse races. No matter who you are, or what your betting goals are, you will need to select the horses to bet on. Your selection methods could be by picking a number, a colour of the jockey's silks, or just liking a name. Random methods are usually doomed to failure, depending simply upon luck. In this day and age of information technology, there is always plenty of information on horse racing form available. We will have a look at some factors of horse performance you might like to consider before placing your bet.
Unless a horse is a first starter, then you will have some performance on which to assess the abilities of a horse. Any form guide will tell you the past runs of a horse, and good guides will include time, margins, weights and class. They will also include an X when a horse hasn't started for a long period and this is known as a spell. Some horses perform well after a break, while others will take a number of runs to gain fitness.
Armed with all of this information, you would think it would be easy to find the next winner, wouldn't you? But it is not that easy, and there are a lot of other things to be considered.
Most of the past performance is centred on the finishing position of a horse. Sometimes this can be misleading, and you need to look at this in some perspective. Horse A might run third but be beaten by six lengths, while horse B may run eighth, but beaten by only four lengths. We then have to try and determine which was the best run. Class of the race can make a big difference. If our first horse raced in an Open Handicap while the second horse raced in a Maiden race, for non-winners, then you may be inclined to think that the first run was better.
Time is a good comparison if conditions are the same. Horses that show they can run the best time will probably beat those that have previously run slower. Conditions, like track conditions, can impact on this, as well as the run the horse gets in the race. Weight is another great leveller. The more weight a horse carries, and this is allocated by the handicapper whose aim is it to even out the ability of the horses in the race, the slower it will go.
Things go wrong in races. Horses can run into trouble and maybe even have gear problems. While many form guides do not show them, it is a good idea to read through the steward's reports as these may give a clue especially to an uncharacteristic performance.
A number of guides will also show if a horse is up or down in grade. The easier the race obviously the easier it is for a horse to win. There is no better example of this than Maiden races. Often you will see a Maiden winner step up into a Class 1 race and start favourite. These runners have a particularly poor record. In fact, most last start winners find it hard to win their next start as they are usually handicapped harshly.
Another important factor in past performances is when a horse had its last start. Most horses perform best with a seven to fourteen day break between races. However, many horses will take some runs to gain fitness, and by looking at past campaigns, we may be able to identify when a horse is reaching peak fitness.
What you get out of past performances depends on the amount of analysis you are prepared to put in. Be wary of taking all information on face value.
Really appreciate you sharing this blog post.Really thank you! Really Cool. New Slot Sites UK
ReplyDelete